| Covid-19 Update | |||
| 3:00 PM 18-Mar | Cases | Deaths | Parishes |
| Louisiana | 257 | 7 | 13 |
| St. Mary Parish | 0 | 0 | |
| United States | 7,324 | 108 | |
| Italy | 35,713 | 2,978 | |
| World | 212,594 | 8,726 |
Above are the numbers as of mid-afternoon on Wednesday. I will likely be blogging daily during the coming weeks tracking the progress of the outbreak and providing information from verifiable and peer-reviewed data and studies on the outbreak. I am including Italy in the update numbers because they unfortunately are about two weeks ahead of the rest of the western word in this outbreak. They are the best indication of how this will progress and an example of how bad things can get.
All indications are that we are at a critical inflection point in the US outbreak. How well we self-isolate and stay away from gatherings over the next two weeks will determine how devastating this outbreak will become. It seems completely illogical but we want this outbreak to drag on. A longer duration outbreak, with a slower rise in cases over months is far more palatable to the continued nearly vertical slope in the number of confirmed cases. If we do not “flatten the curve,” the number of those critically ill with Covid-19 will outstrip the number of critical care beds in Louisiana and the US as a whole. We could be put in the position Italy now fines itself, where they are literally having to decide who gets ventilators and ICU beds and who does not. Who dies and who does not. As the governor and president have said, how we act as a state and nation in the coming two weeks will determine just how bad things get.
The graph above says it all. If by self-isolating someone prevents one case of Covid-19 today, it will prevent 2,200 new cases in next 30 days. If we say “oh its not that bad” and wait a week before preventing that one case, we only prevent 500 new cases. A difference of say 700 cases. That is how fast this virus spreads!
We are all seeing the number of cases climb exponentially in Louisiana and across the US and world. But even those numbers are somewhat deceiving. Let’s look at Louisiana. We now have 257 confirmed cases. That is based on just under 600 people being tested in Louisiana. There are over 4 million people in Louisiana. Of those positive tests, 40% are in people under the age of 50. They were tested because they either were exposed or had symptoms. But, in that age demographic, most healthy people do not have serious symptoms from the virus and may not even know they have it. So imagine the number of people who likely have the virus in that age group but have no idea or are just treating their illness as a cold or the flu. Each person out there infected, unknowingly, will lead to 2200 new cases in 30 days. The impact is staggering.
We must also remember that Covid-19 has an incubation period of somewhere between 5 and 14 days. That means it could be a week or more between when you are infected and begin to show symptoms. But by the second or third day, your body begins to shed the virus to your surroundings. All the while, you are spreading the disease and do not even know it. And once you see the onset of symptoms, they will initially resemble a run of the mill upper respiratory infection possibly leading to even more people becoming infected pending testing. The bottom line is that those who acquire the virus are likely to spread it for up to 10 days before they are aware they are a threat. This is why Governor Edwards said today we must all assume we have the virus and do not know it, if we are to flatten the curve.
The graphic above is from the World Health Organization and shows the symptoms associated with Covid-19. For the most part, they are the same as any upper respiratory infection, bronchitis or pneumonia. If you have any of these symptoms, contact your health care provider, If you do not have a doctor, call 211 in Louisiana for a referral. Only be identifying and isolating those with the virus will we ever slow its growth.
I will close with another great graphic countering the sentiment still seen online that Covid-19 is no different than seasonal flu outbreaks.
This graphic clearly demonstrates the Covid-19 outbreak is twice as contagious as the flu, has an incubation period up to four times longer, is nine times more likely to lead to hospitalization and is up to 34 times more deadly. This is far worse than the seasonal flu! And by the way, the seasonal flu will affect 30 million in the US this year and kill around 20,000. And we have a vaccine for it.
Finally, there are stories all over the internet that ibuprofen may make a Covid-19 infection worse. This is baseless. The World Health Organization and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention both said today that there is no scientific basis for this claim and ibuprofen is a perfectly reasonable alternative to acetaminophen, especially for those who cannot use Tylenol and other acetaminophen products.
Until next time, stay safe and flatten the curve by following the recommendations of state and federal officials.