There is Invest 92L Coming Into the Gulf as Predicted

Well after the NHC saw fit to not even acknowledge Invest 92L for nearly a week, it popped up on the NHC Outlook at 4 am this morning with a 10% chance of formation and by noon was up to a 40% chance. Now in all honesty it has been there all along. As we talked about on Sunday, it has had a tough trip through the Caribbean Sea. There was dry air, massive low- and upper-level wind shear, it crossed the massive mountains of Hispaniola, known storm killers, and yet here we are on Friday with a very good chance we will have a tropical depression or storm in the Gulf of Mexico within a day or so.

 wv-gulf-animated

Here are the visible and water vapor imagery from midday. In the visible image on top, you can clearly see there is a closed surface circulation but it is currently displaced from the thunderstorms due to shear from the upper level trough to the north. Note how the clouds off of eastern Florida come down south near the coast then head north over the Bahamas. That is our old friend shear, But she is pulling out to the northeast as 92L moves to the west. As of midday, the system was producing squalls of 30-35 mph in the Florida straits and conditions are conducive to some organization and intensification once it gets into the Gulf.

As to how strong or where it is going to go, we are going to defer those for now. It is a highly complex situation which is going to have to  clarify itself over the next day or two before we know anything with any degree of certainty. In the fight right now is the large upper trough aligned along the Atlantic Seaboard, which will pull off to the northeast. Out just north of Puerto Rico, we have Invest 93L, which is showing absolutely no signs of development and ignored by most models as a dead system. What remains of 93L will sweep up to the northeast and recurve as it follows the upper trough. The spin over Southern Texas is an upper level low moving slowly westward, as it awaits a frontal system which will weep in about four or five days down the line. In between all of that is the triangular area of moisture and storms in the southeastern Gulf, which will be a much more favorable environment for Invest 92L. As the system moves into the area of high pressure aloft over the next day or so, there is a good chance it will become a depression or tropical storm.

What its does then is just not possible to call. The models have no clue right now as they have been sort of told 92L was dead and gone. It will take a cycle or two for them to get a handle on it. Purely looking at the current environment, one sees the weather in the central Gulf pushing up to the northwest towards the central Gulf Coast. That is a likely motion in the short term. But if this system takes its time in the Gulf: well things they will be a changing. A frontal system will swing down around day five or so, which would likely tend to push the system to the west. There are just too many variable to make a reasonable call. Bottom line: I told you Sunday we would need to watch the Gulf by late week and, sorry, I was right. However, I am not real worried about this system at the moment. It will not become a big hurricane. It may go north, northwest, west and even southwest (unlikely though). The biggest threat would be IF it gets swept up to the northwest as a minimal tropical storm and impacts the central Gulf Coast somewhere as a big rain maker. That we do not need. But that is a huge “if” right now, something I rate at less than 20% at the moment. We have a few days to watch and see what is up. As always, I shall keep you informed on my thoughts.

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