The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Louisiana Coast from Intracoastal City to the mouth of the Pearl River. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions, with winds in excess of 39 mph are expected in the warning area within the next 48 hours. In this case we could see those winds and storms within 24-36 hours.
All of this is in reference to Investigation 93L now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. In an effort to stay ahead of the curve, the NHC can now issue watches and warning even when a system is still forming like this one. Two satellite passes earlier today showed surface winds in excess of tropical storm strength associated with the system getting organized north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The models had predicted this system to form as long as a week ago but were unsure when and where it would form or go. Things have become clearer as the system got into the Gulf over the past 24 hours.
This is the latest visible satellite loop from this afternoon and you can see the system trying to get organized in the southern Gulf off of the Yucatan. In the final frames you can see what looks like an exposed closed center. Thatgood news in all of this: this is not likely to become a hurricane despite very warm Gulf waters. Inhibiting the system is an upper-level low pressure area centered south of Galveston. This upper low has brought us the very dry weather of the past week as it cut off from the upper-level flow and churned over the Louisiana-Texas border region. As we have discussed here in the past, upper-level lows bring with them shear that makes it difficult for thunderstorms to grow upward into the atmosphere and wrap around the center.
There is an issue though. The upper-level low is now weakening and pulling off to the southwest towards the Bay of Campeche. So while it will impact the growing tropical system for a while, the impact will lessen over the next day or so.
In the GOES Water Vapor Loop at left you can see the growing tropical system covering the eastern half of the Gulf. To its west is a section of browns and blacks. That is the dry air associated with the upper-low. Notice a couple of things about the upper low: first of all, it is moving now and moving to the southwest; and second, it is “filling” or falling apart. Notice how the clouds with the tropical system are moving westward, while moisture over Texas, whiter colors pushes in from the west. Finally, see all of those white streamers flowing in from the lower left. These are all signs the upper-low and its shear will soon be less of a factor, allowing a more concentric system to form.
In general, the models are indicating a system with winds no more than say 50 mph. In fact the NHC is being a bit more conservative with top winds only reaching 45 mph. But this is one system where winds are the least of our worries. PTC #3 is a massive rain maker. And with some of the models indicating it may slow as it approaches the coast, we could be talking about dangerous amounts of rain. Tropical storms have historically been some of the most intense rain makers of all tropical systems, with some dumping up to 30 inches of rain. We are not talking about those kind of numbers here, but double-digit rain amounts are likely near where the center crosses land and to the east of that.
Normally, we would feel pretty good about being on the western side of the warning area. But it is more related to the lopsided nature of the system than the potential landfall site. Best guess is the center will come inland just to our west. That is purely a guess but probably a good one. We will in all likelihood be on the wet side of the storm. And if the system manages to wrap up and become more organized, the Tropical Storm Watch from Intracoastal City to High Island Texas may be upgraded to a warning as well.
As you can see from the latest model runs, we are pretty unlikely to avoid the effects of this system. Thankfully, it will be a rain maker and not a wind machine. It has been a while since we have had a tropical system impact the Berwick Bay area. So this would be a good time to take care of all of those early season activities and prepare your home and family for what is shaping up as a busy season. I will begin to outline my thoughts on newly formed Tropical Storm Brett in the Atlantic once PTC#3/Cindy is gone. We could be looking at Brett or his remnants in the Gulf by next week.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is currently investigating the Potential Tropical Cyclone Three as I type this blog. If it finds Tropical Storm Cindy has formed out there, I will update this blog with that info. I am also considering moving from these text-based blogs to a YouTube video blog in the near future. Just a heads up. Until the next update, stay safe and prepare!