Gulf Remains Unsettled

The northern Gulf of Mexico remains disturbed but there is still little or no threat of any tropical development over the next five days. There has been some persistence of disturbed weather and there had been some consolidation in the northwestern Gulf over the past 24 hours. However, with the entire northern Gulf once again lighting up with convection, there is obviously no single area trying to wrap-up into a cyclonic system. Upper level conditions also remain unfavorable. The National Hurricane Center has put a 10% chance the area could develop in the next five days, which seems about right. It is expected this weather will displaced early this week as high pressure builds back over the Gulf. However should this not occur and the Gulf weather find a way to consolidate, models are indicating slightly more favorable conditions for development in the Gulf region later this week or early next week. But that is a long ways off and still a low percentage chance.

In another basin much farther away, Tropical Storm Guillermo is still headed for the islands of Hawaii packing winds of near 100 mph. While it looks like the islands will still take a hit from the storm, it will likely be as a strong tropical storm making the heavy rains the biggest threat. However, winds could still do some damage, especially in windward facing mountainous areas. Landfall looks to be sometimes midday on Wednesday.

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