Gulf Unsettled

Got an inquiry or two this morning about the cloud activity in the Gulf of Mexico. The short answer is there is nothing to be worried about. The enhanced convection currently showing up on satellite imagery is mostly related to stalled out weak frontal boundary extending from the Florida Panhandle to about 50 miles south of Cameron in the Gulf. Add in a strong upper level high over Central Texas and strong upper level trough from Central Alabama to the DelMarva Peninsula and things are ripe for convection. But as for tropical formation, it is unlikely at the moment. Upper level winds at both the mid- and upper-levels are out of the North and strong due to the squeeze of the two upper level systems. In addition, the strong band of shear which has persisted over the Gulf this season is lingering just south of the current convective activity. None of which is conducive to tropical development anytime in the near future. The models show the weather will persist in the Gulf over the weekend, before moving out as high pressure once again ridges over the Gulf early next week. All that said, any time there is thunderstorm activity persisting over 85 to 87 degree Gulf waters this time of year we keep a watchful eye out for home grown activity. So if the current activity can hold together into next week we might have something to talk about. But for now, no worries.

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