The northern gulf is active again, especially from the Mississippi River to the Florida peninsula There has been some westward expansion this afternoon, but the weather is still well west of Berwick Bay. The area is actually being triggered by a frontal boundary north of the area, with some upper level support from a mid- and upper-level trough off the Florida coast in the southwestern North Atlantic and a broad ridge of high pressure centered over Texas. Where these two upper air masses meet creates an area of instability. As for tropical activity, it is unlikely this current convection will have any tropical characteristics. However, this is the time of year when we begin to watch as fronts move into the Gulf and stall. Often these systems can generate homegrown tropical activity in the Gulf.
On the bright side, yes I did mention a front! The first major bend in the jet stream this year will predominantly impact the eastern third of the nation later about mid-week, bringing some really pleasant weather far, far north and east of here. But it is a front and more will follow. Until the front begins to approach on Wednesday, it will continue to be hot, very hot. Sunday is setting up to be possibly the hottest day of the summer thus far. Temperatures in the Berwick Bay area will be in the upper 90s, possible approaching 100 degrees. Widespread 100s will likely be found at inland and metro locations. Monday and even Tuesday look to be not quite as hot but just barely. Wednesday will finally bring some relief in the form of a 30-40% chance of showers as the tail end of the east coast front drapes across the area. Hopefully the rain chances will hang around for a day or two before the heat builds back in. Could be worse. Texas will likely see their temps even rise higher with little or no chance of showers.
Thankfully, it will only be a few more weeks before we begin to see fronts consistently approaching the area. By September, our average highs will be back down in the upper 80s and October will bring average highs in the 70s. Just a few more weeks. And I’ll keep an eye on the Gulf just in case the front decides to try and leave a little problem in its wake!