Hermine Grows as She Approaches Florida Panhandle

Tropical Storm Hermine is soon to be Hurricane Hermine as winds spin up and the pressure continues to drop. The good news is that Hermine is approaching land with landfall likely sometime later today.  At 10 a.m. Hermine was located at 27.4N 86.0W, about 275 miles SSW of Apalachicola, with sustained winds of 60 knots and a central pressure of  991 mb. As the Hurricane Hunters continue to investigate the storm, they just made a pass through the southeast quadrant and found winds of 65 knots or hurricane intensity. As pressure continues to fall, it is likely we will see Hurricane Hermine later today. You will note that I did not list the motion with the 10 AM advisory. Well it is because I am not sure it is accurate. Hermine is a developing storm, with thunderstorms finally starting to warp around the western side of the system center. When you have system which has been heavily right sided and it begins to  become symmetrical, it wobbles and makes finding the true motion difficult. In addition, this system does not yet have a defined nice eye, but rather an irregular large area of calm winds, so finding the center of the center is difficult. The hurricane center says the system is moving north-northwest at 30 degrees. So if north is 0 degrees, east is 90 degrees, then northeast is 45 degrees. So 30 degrees would mean a substantial motion to the right. I will leave the motion to you to judge this time.  out these two satellite images and see what you think?

The good news is models finally have a consistent fix on the storm. It should move mostly in a north to north-northeast direction over the next 24 hours then bend to the northeast as it is absorbed by the a frontal system over the southern and mid-Atlantic states. The most likely path will keep it inland as a big rainmaker but not allow it to do any reorganization as it might if it emerged back over open waters.

So here is the bottom line on the system. A moderately sized minimal hurricane is going to strike the Florida Panhandle later today somewhere between Panama City and Tallahassee. Do  not concentrate on where the “eye” crosses the coast, this is a large and somewhat asymmetrical system. If you are in the warned areas, you need to be taking immediate actions to protect life and property. By nightfall, much of the warned area will have tropical storm force winds and rising waters. The storm surge is projected to run 3-7 feet, and there is a strong risk of tornadoes, especially as outer bands of thunderstorms move inland. As with most minimal intensity systems, the major effect of this system will be torrential rains. Expect 5-10 inches of rainfall, often in intense bands with rates of up to 4 inches per hour. Some areas could see as much as 20 inches of rain through Friday. This mass of squally weather will move into Georgia and the Carolinas late Friday into Saturday and continue to dump heavy rains. Pay attention to local authorities and act immediately if told to leave or seek higher ground. Never attempt to cross roads covered by water. As little as six inches of water can  sweep away a vehicle and drowning is one of the leading causes of death in landfalling systems. Also never use candles or flame based lanterns, as fires are another of the primary causes of death and injury with storms. Remember, it is often impossible for firefighters to even reach the site of the fire if one occurs. All this will be covered in local action statements put out by your local weather service office. Listen to them and follow their recommendations. It might just save your life or that of a loved one.

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