Well after the NHC saw fit to not even acknowledge Invest 92L for nearly a week, it popped up on the NHC Outlook at 4 am this morning with a 10% chance of formation and by noon was up to a 40% chance. Now in all honesty it has been there all along. As we talked about on Sunday, it has had a tough trip through the Caribbean Sea. There was dry air, massive low- and upper-level wind shear, it crossed the massive mountains of Hispaniola, known storm killers, and yet here we are on Friday with a very good chance we will have a tropical depression or storm in the Gulf of Mexico within a day or so.
Here are the visible and water vapor imagery from midday. In the visible image on top, you can clearly see there is a closed surface circulation but it is currently displaced from the thunderstorms due to shear from the upper level trough to the north. Note how the clouds off of eastern Florida come down south near the coast then head north over the Bahamas. That is our old friend shear, But she is pulling out to the northeast as 92L moves to the west. As of midday, the system was producing squalls of 30-35 mph in the Florida straits and conditions are conducive to some organization and intensification once it gets into the Gulf.
As to how strong or where it is going to go, we are going to defer those for now. It is a highly complex situation which is going to have to clarify itself over the next day or two before we know anything with any degree of certainty. In the fight right now is the large upper trough aligned along the Atlantic Seaboard, which will pull off to the northeast. Out just north of Puerto Rico, we have Invest 93L, which is showing absolutely no signs of development and ignored by most models as a dead system. What remains of 93L will sweep up to the northeast and recurve as it follows the upper trough. The spin over Southern Texas is an upper level low moving slowly westward, as it awaits a frontal system which will weep in about four or five days down the line. In between all of that is the triangular area of moisture and storms in the southeastern Gulf, which will be a much more favorable environment for Invest 92L. As the system moves into the area of high pressure aloft over the next day or so, there is a good chance it will become a depression or tropical storm.
What its does then is just not possible to call. The models have no clue right now as they have been sort of told 92L was dead and gone. It will take a cycle or two for them to get a handle on it. Purely looking at the current environment, one sees the weather in the central Gulf pushing up to the northwest towards the central Gulf Coast. That is a likely motion in the short term. But if this system takes its time in the Gulf: well things they will be a changing. A frontal system will swing down around day five or so, which would likely tend to push the system to the west. There are just too many variable to make a reasonable call. Bottom line: I told you Sunday we would need to watch the Gulf by late week and, sorry, I was right. However, I am not real worried about this system at the moment. It will not become a big hurricane. It may go north, northwest, west and even southwest (unlikely though). The biggest threat would be IF it gets swept up to the northwest as a minimal tropical storm and impacts the central Gulf Coast somewhere as a big rain maker. That we do not need. But that is a huge “if” right now, something I rate at less than 20% at the moment. We have a few days to watch and see what is up. As always, I shall keep you informed on my thoughts.
The good news is models finally have a consistent fix on the storm. It should move mostly in a north to north-northeast direction over the next 24 hours then bend to the northeast as it is absorbed by the a frontal system over the southern and mid-Atlantic states. The most likely path will keep it inland as a big rainmaker but not allow it to do any reorganization as it might if it emerged back over open waters.
The storm surge is projected to run 3-7 feet, and there is a strong risk of tornadoes, especially as outer bands of thunderstorms move inland. As with most minimal intensity systems, the major effect of this system will be torrential rains. Expect 5-10 inches of rainfall, often in intense bands with rates of up to 4 inches per hour. Some areas could see as much as 20 inches of rain through Friday. This mass of squally weather will move into Georgia and the Carolinas late Friday into Saturday and continue to dump heavy rains. Pay attention to local authorities and act immediately if told to leave or seek higher ground. Never attempt to cross roads covered by water. As little as six inches of water can sweep away a vehicle and drowning is one of the leading causes of death in landfalling systems. Also never use candles or flame based lanterns, as fires are another of the primary causes of death and injury with storms. Remember, it is often impossible for firefighters to even reach the site of the fire if one occurs. All this will be covered in local action statements put out by your local weather service office. Listen to them and follow their recommendations. It might just save your life or that of a loved one.
In this animated loop of the visible satellite imagery, you can sort of see where the center is located by the clouds at top-left of the cloud mass curving south into the system. The center is actually located just under the northwest corner of the cloud mass. It has not yet wrapped up completely around the center but is very close to Tropical Storm intensity. It would not surprise me if we see it named later tonight. Now it is not easy to see, but looking closely at the swirling clouds, it appears the system is moving predominately to the west very slowly. Officially, the NHC says the motion is west-northwest at 9 mph. That has a lot to do with my problems with the current forecast track. This system has been consistently running south of where the models said it should go. This time last week it was supposed to impact the central Florida coast. By later in the week, we were told the system would likely impact just south of Miami and into the Florida Keys. Late week, the system was supposed to pass right through the Florida Straits. But each time, it actually traveled farther to the south, actually hugging the Cuban coast until yesterday. So each forecast got shifted south. Fast forward to now and the system is still farther south than Key West.