When we last talked, Danny was cranking up on the far eastern Atlantic and headed toward the Lesser Antilles, where it was likely to run into problems. And problems it did find, as it approached the upper Windward Islands.
A combination of very strong west and southwest wind sear, with very dry air full of Saharan dust, created a situation which Danny could not overcome. This was somewhat also due to Danny’s size. While it had reached Category III intensity in the mid-Atlantic, Danny was always a small, very tight, storm. The Hurricane Center is all but written off Danny now, but I am going to keep an eye on those remnants. It seems to have flared again this morning as it passed over and south of Puerto Rico. While regeneration is not likely, it is not out of the question if the system makes it to the western Caribbean.
A bigger concern now is Tropical Storm Erika. At 1 PM today, Erika was located near 15.3N and 51.8W, or about 640 miles east if the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph and the central pressure 1003 mb or 29.62 inHg. Erika was moving to the west (280 degrees) at 20 mph. Erika is forecast to continue to move west to west-northwest over the next five days. This will carry it over the far northern Windward Islands and north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The latter may be close enough for Erika to be a minor wind even but quite a rain maker. On the morning of August 30th, Erika is currently forecast to be sitting in the central Bahamas as a strong Category I hurricane and intensifying. Where it goes from there is the $64,000 question? Most of the major atmospheric models indicate that a weakness will move from west to east across the southern US, allowing Erika to recurve to the northwest then north. But when this happens and exactly where will be critical. It could curve quickly and just glance Florida before heading into the northern Atlantic? Yet other models indicate it may cross Florida and get into the eastern Gulf before making the turn? It is too early to make any kind of reasonable call. But all interests in Florida, the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico need to keep an eye on this system. CajunWX will continue to follow Erika and what’s left of Danny just to make sure they will pose no threat to the Berwick Bay region.